Looking Back – 2011 Edition
Well, 2011 has been an eventful year, both for me personally, the United States, and the world at large. For my part, I enlisted in the Coast Guard, survived basic training (barely), married my boyfriend of 6.5 years, moved to Rhode Island, and got my orders that will send me to A-School and a promotion in the New Year. (Sadly for my husband, he will have to endure a New England winter without me, since training is in Northern California.) In a few days I catch my train cross-country for a 4 month training period in California. I’ll return to Rhode Island briefly in the late spring, before moving on to the next station. Where is that? I’ll let you know sometime in April, when I expect to find out.
I stopped writing in late November because the pace of work ticked up, and things both politically and economically have settled into a very unsettling norm. Europe is still in crisis, Republicans are still holding legislation hostage in an effort to further outdo the Do Nothing Congress (a feat they’ve already accomplished), and things have pottered along. The economists I read and respect, such as Brad DeLong, Ezra Klein, and especially Paul Krugman continue to try to get the powers that be to listen to some economic common sense, namely that austerity is the last thing we need now in the U.S., to little result.
As a member of the military, and therefore a federal employee, the U.S. government’s antics have been the most personally disturbing. In basic training the chaplains and our Company Commanders warned us of the continuing debt ceiling showdown and how a government freeze would affect our pay and training. Similar worries arose again before the payroll cut compromise was agreed to, with the Department of Homeland Security sending all its employees an email to update them on plans for furloughs and work freezes. This year was just as uncertain for me as it was for any business person out there. However, I don’t buy the Republican line that Obama is creating this uncertainty. Their own obstruction and political brinkmanship is.
I continue to believe that Europe will be fine if cool heads prevail – both in government and in the investor pool. We’re ending 2011 with news that Italian short-term and Spanish short- and long-term bond rates are falling, finally. Maybe the ECB is sneakily taking action. Maybe investors are realizing that their panic will create the very thing they fear. That is more maybes than I am personally comfortable with, and I continue to keep up with the news out of Europe with a realistic – which is to say faintly hopeful, but overall, slightly pessimistic – set of expectations.
I would like to see some bold action in 2012, but don’t think it likely. It is an election year here in the U.S., with all the political paralysis that accompanies it. Europe shows no signs of bold action, rather, a continuing muddling through. China and India remain cautious, as growth slows in both countries. India’s persistently high inflation gives it double the reason for caution. Iran seems to be the only country ready to take bold action – causing a 21st century oil crisis. At least alternative energy could get a kick from that. I’ll make no secret that I’d like to see renewable energy make big inroads around the world, though I would like to think it wouldn’t take an oil crisis to make that happen. Key words there: would like to.
I see 2011 as a year of frustration. Frustrating for businesses and individuals in Europe and America due to government inaction. Frustrating for someone like me who thinks governments should be taking care of their citizens because of Washington gridlock of epic proportions. Frustrations for BRIC countries as various ones deal with high inflation, slowing growth, and a decreasing tolerance for corruption in government.
I think 2012 will bring more of the same unless a big event forces’ hands of governments around the world. Right now the two places that I am keeping an eye on so far for the new year are North Korea and Iraq. I’m sure there will be other crises that test the world moving forward. 2011 was not an easy year for us, and 2012 probably won’t be either.
As a side note, I get a lot of spam comments to this blog. Just thought you readers may like to know that people really want to sell you boots, jackets, and sports jerseys. They’re the majority of the comments that get left. Well, have a happy New Year! I’ll be visiting family and preparing to travel across country, so unless something truly amazing happens in the next 4-5 days, I’ll see you in 2012 as I start my train journey to the West Coast.
