Life Update
Sorry things have been so quiet of late. It seems that I’m practically living at my station these days, and what little home time I’ve had is filled with errands, homework, and occasionally playing tour guide to my family. I’ve been following economic and political news as much as ever, I’ve just been struggling to find a time to write. I’m watching events in Europe in disbelief. How can the continent’s leaders drag their feet as things continue to look more dangerous for them? I think it’s possible to fix the Euro, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why the heads of state and ECB seem so determined to just muddle through. I’m keeping informed on the GOP primary season, but frankly I find the field rather depressing. If I have to root for one of them, I’ll root for Huntsman. He’s at least sane.
I hope to have an update when I get my next days off mid-week. For now, I’m going to keep reading The End of Wall Street for a few and then head off to bed. 5:30 a.m. comes far too early, especially this time of year, with dawn so late and dusk so early.
Why I Hope the Ames Poll is Worthless
As anyone who looked at a news website probably knows by now, Michele Bachmann won the 2011 Ames Straw Poll in Iowa(Reuters) this weekend, with Ron Paul coming in a close second. And for the sake of this country, I hope that this is an absolutely worthless indicator of the direction of the Republican Party.
Business cycles: Fearing fear itself | The Economist
Business cycles: Fearing fear itself | The Economist.
More confirmation that what we’re seeing now is self-perpetuating market fear of events that threatens to create self-fulfilling prophecies. At least on the upside, there is plenty of precedence for this type of thing, and evidence that any pain it causes is relatively short term. I’m personally hoping that today’s rally lasts and that we see a bit of return to sanity before we cause a short recession. Also, I hope against hope that investors calm the hell down about Europe and realize that their actions influence government fiscal policy tremendously. If they calm down and keep a level head, collectively-speaking, the Eurozone should be able to ride things out, and Italy and Spain should be able to service their debts in perpetuity.
Do We Even Know What They Are Scared Of?
Or, for that matter, do they? ”They” would be investors, who, according to the media, are still running scared from the implications of the unprecedented S&P downgrade and overall economic weakness. At least it’s half right.
Sadly, It Appears I May Be Right
Alternatively titled: Investors are a Superstitious, Cowardly Lot. Skittishness over Spain and Italy, coupled with the U.S. downgrade to AA+ Friday afternoon hit the markets today, leaving the Dow down 5.5% and threatening to make the Eurozone a house of cards.
